Peak Oil is Coming

In 1956, M. King Hubbert, an American geophysicist working at Shell Oil research, came up with a startling prediction: Oil production in the United States would follow a “bell curve” and peak in the early 1970s, signaling the beginning of an irreversible decline in the domestic output of crude petroleum. He predicted this bell curve would also apply to global oil production and signal the onset of the end of the Age of Oil. Almost every energy expert rejected this thesis, until 1971 when, his prediction was proven to be right on. Output of crude oil in this country peaked in the year 1971, and it has been falling ever since.

This “bell curve” has become known in the industry as "Hubbert's Curve" and the top of this curve is known as “Hubbert’s Peak” or “Peak Oil”. Scientists have learned that this bell curve can be applied to the extraction of any finite natural resource and is predictive of the rates of extraction. The curve is based on the simple reality that the first oil is easy to find and requires little effort to extract, and as oil is used up it becomes progressively harder to find and extract, therefore production peaks and then starts declining. Despite its fundamental significance where the future of our oil based economy is concerned, it has been a little known scientific tool. Now it has moved into world prominence in the debate about our oil future and is accepted by virtually every scientist in the field.

We are now at or near the top of the global Hubbert Curve. What awaits us is not a pretty picture: Declining production despite more drilling. Everything made from oil or transported with oil will becoming more expensive. In America, we currently use 10 calories of oil to produce 1 calorie of food. The great food basket of the world will suddenly become almost empty and the available food will become very expensive. There will have to be a die-off as the human population is reduced to sustainable levels. A huge damper will be placed on the economy as massive consumer spending on throw away goods disappears. Companies and even whole industries will collapse and the resultant unemployment will reach staggering proportions.

This isn’t Y2K. “Peak Oil” is a scientific fact, it must occur. The only question is exactly when. A few groups claim that “Peak Oil” won’t occur until as late as 2020 but these groups are attached to government and industry lobbies and have an agenda to maintain the status quo. The overwhelming consensus of scientists is that “Peak Oil’ will occur between 2005 and 2010. As oil becomes scarcer, civilization will be forced into monumental changes. The onset of rapid depletion will trigger economic convulsions on a global scale, famine, disease and resource wars. The “have” countries will face the necessity of kicking the “have-nots” out of the global oil lifeboat in order to assure their own survival for a little longer.