A Sane Policy Toward Iran

I have previously criticized the Bush administration for their shortsighted policy of confrontation with Iran but now I will offer a constructive alternative.

A sound policy should be based on these self-evident assumptions:

1.    The government of Iran is pragmatic and invested in their self-interest as is demonstrated by the fact that they have held on to power for 27 years.
2.    The notion that Iran is crazy with self-destructive zeal is not borne out by the facts. For instance, in their 27 years of rule, Iran has never invaded another country. Iran’s military expenditures are 6 billion per year; compared to 25 billion for Saudi Arabia and 300 billion for the U.S.
3.    Even if they were to achieve a nuclear weapon in the next 5 to 10 years, there is no reason to believe they would use it and assure their own destruction.
4.    Seventy percent of Iran’s population is under 30 and most are moderates that want the benefits of western culture. Time is on our side as long as we avoid radicalizing the population.
5.    Iran wants very much to be accepted as a respected member of the community of prosperous and influential modern states.
6.    An Iran that was indeed a trustworthy member of that community would be an enormous benefit to America and to the world.

The objective of American policy therefore should be accommodating and eventually modifying the legitimate national aspirations of a self-interested and pragmatic Iran - not launching a potentially catastrophic preemptive war against a potentially powerful and influential Muslim nation of seventy million people.
Coaxing Iran down a path leading toward successful achievement of international respectability and acceptance is the single most important "carrot" that we have to offer to today’s Iranian leadership and tomorrow’s new Iranian leaders.
The potential value of positive incentives has been completely squandered; however, by the pointless hostility and belligerence of the Bush administration. It started with the "axis of evil" speech and proceeded downhill from there to the most recent threats and ultimatums. This has greatly diminished our own bargaining power while making the job of arriving at a reasonable accommodation with Iran infinitely more difficult.